PRACTICAL ASPECTS OF CONSTRUCTING MATHEMATICAL MODELS OF PROGNOSTIC TRENDS OF DEVELOPMENT OF THE ECONOMY

Abstract

The dynamic development of the economy closely linked with the introduction of mathematical methods for constructing prognostic alternatives in the practical sphere of economic activity. Mathematical modeling of economic phenomena and processes, by consistently establishing logical causal relationships is the most effective means of solving various problems of economically developed society. Forecasting considered the system of methods and models mathematical modeling, which brings the management of mass economic phenomena and processes to a qualitatively higher level. Creating mathematical models and forecasting based on them involves the use of statistical categories, methods, tools, the choice of which is determined by the characteristics and structure of the subject of study, the influence of external predictable and random factors. The use of time series, analysis of trends in socio-economic development and forecasting based on it, is one of the least algorithmic tools used by scientists, researchers, economists and practitioners. The existence of a large number of methods for constructing prognostic models does not simplify the process of forecasting and choosing alternative directions for the development of the object under study in the future. The question of assessing the reliability of forecast calculations, the choice of quality criteria for the forecast model and its adaptation to existing trends is always open. The aim of the research is theoretical and practical aspects of application the mathematical methods in analysis of formalized tendencies the economic indicators, substantiation of choice the statistical criteria of estimation the mathematical model of prognostic alternatives and administrative decisions. The complexity of internal and external relationships of enterprises, the presence of a large number indicators, factors and limitations of an individual enterprise, as well as the presence of competition do not allow to form an optimal plan for economic development without the use of specific methods and models. Management decision-making time is limited, and therefore it is not always possible to make an optimal strategic forecast in a timely and high-quality manner. Mathematical methods and models allow solve even large-scale problems, taking into account a large number of indicators and influencing factors, and the use of computer technology and application software significantly reduces the duration of computational procedures.