ASSESSMENT OF REAL AND POTENTIAL VOLUMES OF STUDENT MIGRATION FROM UKRAINEY
Abstract
Educational migration is a key socio-economic issue that significantly impacts the development of Ukraine, particularly in terms of the macroeconomic situation, demographic trends, and the preservation of cultural identity. The study examines the main trends in student migration from Ukraine between 2004 and 2022, as well as the forecast for the period 2023–2027. From 2004 to 2013, student migration gradually increased, primarily due to limited opportunities for quality education in Ukraine and economic difficulties. A sharp rise in migration flows occurred after 2014, driven by political and economic instability, particularly due to the war in the east of the country and the annexation of Crimea. After 2015–2016, migration slightly decreased but remained at a high level. The forecast of migration volumes using the ARIMA model for the period 2023–2027 shows a trend of increasing migration flows. This growth is linked to economic, political, and social crises, as well as the expansion of international educational programs. The growing demand for international education and the potential "brain drain" present a significant challenge to Ukraine's economic development, as the loss of qualified personnel could reduce the country's innovative potential and competitiveness. However, students who obtain education abroad may contribute to Ukraine's development if they return with new knowledge and experience. An assessment of the real and potential volumes of student migration will help to develop strategies to minimize negative consequences and stimulate the development of the country's human capital. The findings will be useful for the Ministry of Education and Science of Ukraine (to assess trends and the impact of student migration on the educational system), the Ministry of Economy of Ukraine (to develop strategies for utilizing migration potential for economic development), the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine (to assess international relations and cultural exchange in the context of student mobility), and state bodies involved in migration policy (to forecast student migration flows and develop relevant policies).
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